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	<title>Fiscal Policy &#8211; IPAI India</title>
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		<title>Making Sense Of The Subsidy-Freebie Debate</title>
		<link>https://ipaiindia.org/making-sense-of-the-subsidy-freebie-debate/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Subhash Pandey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2022 10:13:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Governance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Policy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ipaiindia.org/?p=5141</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dr Subhash Chandra Pandey&#8211;Aug 11, 2022  A vendor processes the ration card of a woman at his fair price shop. (Representative image) (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images) Snapshot Well-targeted subsidies actually reaching the poorest of the poor are necessary but who is poor is itself a hugely debatable issue. The Supreme Court is seized of an important [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<h1><a class="_3VTqo" style="font-size: 16px;" href="https://swarajyamag.com/author/1535079/dr-subhash-chandra-pandey">Dr Subhash Chandra Pandey</a><span class="hyphen" style="font-size: 16px;">&#8211;</span><span class="_3GZgQ" style="font-size: 16px;">Aug 11, 2022 </span></h1>
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<p><img decoding="async" id="1" class="qt-image gm-loaded gm-observing gm-observing-cb" src="https://gumlet.assettype.com/swarajya%2F2021-12%2Fbdd6bc8b-5ef3-4806-8b95-a0384c411cf0%2FGettyImages_178241808.jpg?q=75&amp;auto=format%2Ccompress&amp;format=webp&amp;w=610&amp;dpr=1.0" sizes="(max-width: 500px) 98vw, (max-width: 768px) 48vw, 23vw" alt="Making Sense Of The Subsidy-Freebie Debate" data-src="https://gumlet.assettype.com/swarajya%2F2021-12%2Fbdd6bc8b-5ef3-4806-8b95-a0384c411cf0%2FGettyImages_178241808.jpg?q=75&amp;auto=format%2Ccompress" /></p>
<p><span class="_3n7EQ">A vendor processes the ration card of a woman at his fair price shop. (Representative image) (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images)</span></p>
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<p>Well-targeted subsidies actually reaching the poorest of the poor are necessary but who is poor is itself a hugely debatable issue.</p>
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<p>The Supreme Court is seized of an important issue of systemic reforms with bearing on politics and public finance: How to rein in the scenario of pre-election promises of ‘freebies’ to lure voters even when implementation of the promises means an unsustainable debt burden on public exchequer.</p>
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<p>What is a ‘freebie’? When it should be objected or defended? What is wrong when government taxes affluent sections of population to extend benefits to weaker sections? What is wrong when government extend sundry benefits even by borrowing money?</p>
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<p>Like most things in life, there is nothing black or white about the freebies/subsidies. It is all shades of grey. Well-targeted subsidies actually reaching the poorest of the poor are necessary but who is poor is itself a hugely debatable issue. Poverty is always relative and once benefits are attached to it, beneficiaries don’t want to lose the ‘poor’ tag even when they move up the ladder.</p>
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<p>About 82 crore people get 5kg wheat/rice per month at a token price of Rs 1, 2 or 3 per kg under a law enacted in 2013. They have also been getting 5 kg free cereal extra under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PM-GKAY) since April 2020, currently valid upto September 2022.</p>
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<p>There is hardly any quibble about the basic necessity of such a programme especially started during the Covid-19 lockdown but whether 82 crore people require it now is debatable. Some may even argue that more than 100 crore deserve this. A simple correlation with mobile phone access shows the irony. There are over 150 crore mobile phones (SIMS issued) of which over one-third are smart phones.</p>
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<p>Earlier, the state was expected to carry out only some very basic functions: internal and external security, policing, administration of justice. Then comes provision of public education and public health and then public infrastructure necessary to facilitate economic activities which no one else is able or willing to finance.</p>
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<p>Basically, the government must deliver public goods using tax collection. Public goods are those which are meant to benefit the general public and the community at large and nobody can be excluded from enjoying its benefit and it is difficult to identify who benefits how much and hence to charge accordingly. If we follow this conservative model of state, most governments all over the world will have to shrink considerably. Tax burdens would go down, borrowings would go down. Citizens and residents will have to be more self-dependent.</p>
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<p>Reality is that worldwide governments have expanded their role even beyond their current taxation capability and providing benefits to people from borrowed money. That is really problematic. Merely taxing A to pay B is not that problematic.</p>
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<p>In 2020-21, central government’s tax revenue (excluding states’ share) was Rs 14,26,287 crore. Committed liabilities of interest payment was Rs 6,79,869 crore and pensions Rs 2,08,473 crore. Expenditure on defence was Rs 3,40,094 crore and Rs 91,610 crore on police and Rs 2,64,790 crore on salaries/allowances of non-defence, non-police manpower.</p>
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<p>Obviously, these expenditures must be first charge on tax revenues. Taxes cannot be diverted to pay for subsidies without first meeting these essential commitments. So how much tax revenue is left after all these expenditures? So taxes are not enough to pay for all these. There is net deficit of Rs 158,549 crore for which non-tax revenues (Rs 2,07,633 crore) have to be used.</p>
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<p>Important: governments don&#8217;t finally repay any debt using revenues, only keep refinancing old loans by taking fresh loans.</p>
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<p>After using all the revenues for these essential expenditures, the Centre is left with just about Rs 49,000 crore. That and may be more may be required for all salaried people to do their assigned work and not just sit idle drawing salaries.</p>
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<p>So the Centre’s revenues don’t pay for subsidies. The Centre has to either sell shares of government companies or borrow. And what is the subsidy bill if that is taken as next priority of expenditure Rs 7,07,707 crore for three major ‘subsidies’ [Food subsidy Rs 5,41,330 crore, fertiliser subsidy Rs 1,27,922 crore and petroleum subsidies Rs 38,455 crore]. ‘Subsidies’ is the term used when something is sold below cost.</p>
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<p>However, the Centre also has other schemes of subsidies/subvention or income supplementation like old age pensions, scholarships and income support to farmers, government paying part of health insurance or life insurance premiums, interest subsidies/subvention for loans to farmers, affordable housing, MSMEs, export credit to offset high cost of capital and subsidies for buying electric vehicles etc, etc.</p>
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<p>Direct income transfers like direct credit to farmers’ bank accounts under PM-KISAN has the same effect as subsidy but technically not labelled as such. In addition, there are cross-subsidies like Indian Railways charging less than actual cost of passenger transport by charging extra on freight of goods transported or charging less from students, employees, senior citizens, freedom fighters etc. Some of these subsidies are slowing being phased out.</p>
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<p>The Centre also has a host of subsidy/incentive schemes to promote industrialisation in industrially backward states or startups.</p>
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<p>Tax concessions are also a special form of subsidies where some people, some items are taxed at a rate less than a standard tax rate or given various exemptions or deductions to reduce tax liability, all for one or the other promotional purpose, some good public interest cause. Promote affordable housing or savings or health insurance or spending of particular types from particular sources like Canteen Stores Departments for military personnel.</p>
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<p>State governments also provide several subsidies and income supplementations. One of the most common is concessional tariffs for power supply to poorer households and farmers. High-end power consumers are charged more so that low end power consumers don’t pay for some units or pay less than the cost of power supplied.</p>
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<p>Under-recovery of full cost of supply of water for irrigation or drinking is also an established subsidy — viewed as ‘below cost provision of goods and services’. Free passes to women commuters or free pilgrimage type of freebies or free WiFi etc, have been other populist measures which can be categorised as freebies/subsidies.</p>
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<p>Loan waivers have been another form of subsidy usually announced as pre-poll promise to gain votes of farmers.</p>
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<p>Important point to note is that almost none of the central subsidies were pre-election poll planks for the present government. Most are inherited subsidies started by previous governments that are continuing in some or other form with improvised technologies for subsidy disbursement. Others were post-poll decisions in specific contexts. In fact, under PAHAL scheme, people were encouraged to voluntarily give up subsidy.</p>
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<p>Most problematic are subsidies relating to power and water especially when these lead to imprudent consumption. For example, cultivation of rice in water scarce areas using high power pumps to draw groundwater from deep depths is an environmental disaster. Rice export is as good as water export.</p>
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<p>The power sector is worst hit by these subsidies. The unpaid dues of power sector companies have piled up to some Rs 250,000 crore. This is more than one-third of total value of annual electricity supply. States’ subsidy dues to power distribution companies alone are over Rs 75,000 crore.</p>
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<p>After repeated interventions to somehow bail out cash-starved DISCOMs, the Centre has now moved to amend the Electricity Act 2003 to insert new DISCOMs, giving consumers choice to switch DISCOM (like switching from one telco to another telco), mandatory fixing minimum maximum tariffs. Analogy should not end here.</p>
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<p>Pre-paid electricity connection, time of the day differential pricing and such other refinements are in the pipeline to ensure quality service to paying consumers. Electricity Amendment Bill has been introduced in Parliament and referred to Parliamentary Committee. We hope this reform will be pushed through.</p>
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<p>As noted above, the Centre does not have spare revenues to pay for subsidies. It has to sell shares or borrow. Most states are in similar situation. They borrow (hardly any disinvestment by states) to finance subsidies and that is worrisome because state revenues are insufficient to pay for police, debt service, salaries and pension — the most committed liabilities that must be met before government decides to incur any discretionary expenditure.</p>
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<p>Delhi is a Union Territory with legislature is an exception as it is able to fund a lot of subsidies from revenues because major expenditures on Delhi like Delhi Police etc, are incurred by central ministries. All pre-1993 loans are serviced by the central government. As a partial offset, Delhi does not get share in central taxes.</p>
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<p>Tax to subsidise is still preferable strategy than borrow to subsidise. It is good that the Supreme Court has now waded into this essentially political arena and invited suggestions on the composition of an expert body that will examine the issue of how to regulate freebies being announced by political parties during elections. The court was hearing a public interest litigation (PIL) petition filed by advocate Ashwini Upadhyay seeking directions to regulate freebies by political parties.</p>
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<p>Some of the freebies/subsidies are essentially direct income transfer schemes to address the failure of policy of ‘trickle down’. It was earlier believed that government should focus on growth and the benefits will ‘trickle down to lowest strata’. However, it did not happen and government was advised to help the neediest directly.</p>
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<p>As highlighted for food subsidy, the real issue is to determine who is the needy deserving government subsidy. In comparison to someone else, everyone can claim to be poor and needy. We have a draw a line somewhere.</p>
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<p>Where such a line can be drawn by courts is debatable. For, it depends upon the fiscal capacity of the state to draw, raise or lower the poverty line. It is not something for the courts to decide. However, the intervention can perhaps help develop some political consensus around some core principles and basic criteria for state fiscal support to individuals.</p>
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		<title>Lessons from the economic crisis in Sri Lanka</title>
		<link>https://ipaiindia.org/lessons-from-the-economic-crisis-i-sri-lanka/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Subhash Pandey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jul 2022 09:38:04 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Governance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Policy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ipaiindia.org/?p=5183</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dr Subhash Chandra Pandey (11 July 2022) Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948. It plunged into deep political crisis as protesters stormed Presidential palace after setting ablaze PM&#8217;s private home. Months of raging public anger against rising prices and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and other essentials culminated in [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dr Subhash Chandra Pandey (11 July 2022)</strong></p>
<p>Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948. It plunged into deep political crisis as protesters stormed Presidential palace after setting ablaze PM&#8217;s private home. Months of raging public anger against rising prices and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and other essentials culminated in these scary scenes of anarchy.</p>
<p>After Sri Lanka emerged from a 26-year long civil war in 2009, it showed healthy GDP growth of 8-9% pa till 2012 but then growth rate almost halved after 2013 as global commodity prices fell and trade deficits rose.</p>
<p>The island country of 2.2 crore people is heavily dependent on foreign exchange earnings by way of tourism, remittances from overseas workers and tea /rubber/apparel exports.</p>
<p>Country&#8217;s tourism-dependent economy was badly hit after Easter bomb blasts of April 2019 in churches in Colombo and later the Covid led to serious drop in tourist arrivals.</p>
<p>The problem was further compounded by build-up of huge government debt, rising oil prices and a ban on import of chemical fertilisers (due to shortage of foreign exchange to finance imports) last year that devastated agriculture.</p>
<p>President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had promised lower tax rates and subsidies for farmers during 2019 election campaign and quick implementation of these ill-advised promises exacerbated fiscal deficit. Big tax cuts introduced in 2019 led to government losing more than $1.4bn a year.</p>
<p>In 2021, all fertiliser imports were completely banned and it was declared that Sri Lanka would become a 100% organic farming nation overnight. This overnight shift to organic fertilisers heavily impacted food production. In part, the ban was imposed to save dollars needed for fertiliser imports ! and dollars were needed for servicing foreign debt, notably to China!</p>
<p>When Sri Lanka&#8217;s foreign currency shortages became a serious problem in early 2021, the government tried to limit them by banning imports of chemical fertiliser. The fertiliser ban (reversed in November 2021) also seriously hurt tea and rubber exports.<br />
The government has incurred huge foreign debts to fund what critics call unviable infrastructure projects.</p>
<p>Sri Lanka&#8217;s total external debt is estimated to be about $51bn and annually needs over $6bn for debt servicing. In contrast, Sri Lanka had $7.6bn in foreign currency reserves by end of 2019. By March 2020, reserves fell to $1.93bn. Recently the government said it had just $50m left.</p>
<p>Sri Lanka earned about $4bn from tourism in 2019 which dropped by 90% due to the pandemic! Its foreign exchange reserves dropped to just about $1.6bn by the end of November, only enough to pay for just a few weeks of imports. The government was forced to restrict import of essential commodities including food in a desperate bid to save dollars.</p>
<p>High global oil / food prices and cost of shipping especially after Russia Ukraine conflict tripped Sri Lanka totally off balance.</p>
<p>Debt to GDP ratio rose from 94% in 2019 to 119% in 2021. Over 10% fiscal deficit in 2020-21 in covid-hit, import dependent and heavily indebted economy resulted in over 15% inflation and serious shortages of food and fuel. A few days’ petrol/diesel left, not enough to even run essential services.</p>
<p>Amidst depreciating currency and rapidly depleting forex reserves an economic emergency as declared to contain rising food prices.<br />
After taking a $2.6 billion loan from the IMF in 2009, it again approached the IMF in 2016 for another US$1.5 billion loan.</p>
<p>Some ill-informed, rather irresponsible and politically motivated commentators have been (rather gleefully!) quick to suggest that India may also witness such scenes soon. Such fear mongering is absolutely baseless.</p>
<p>India had indeed landed in a somewhat precarious economic crisis in 1991 when at one point we had less than 1 billion US dollars in our reserves; just enough to pay for 15 days of imports!</p>
<p>We were on verge of default on international loans but we rose to the occasion. We were quick to rise on our feet. We pledged gold to raise emergency loan followed by IMF loans and have since travelled a lot of distance on the path to progress.</p>
<p>India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $588 billion on July 1. No doubt all emerging economies are under pressure. Our forex reserve dipped by $5 billion in the week ending July 1 prompting RBI to launch fresh remedial measures. However, our granaries are overflowing and we are slowly switching energy mix and decarbonising economy to slowly reduce dependence on imported crude oil and foreign debt is less than 5% of total public debt.</p>
<p>India is trying to help Sri Lanka by extending credit lines, selling food and fuel on credit and also outright aid. India has signalled its willingness to go beyond the $4bn in loans, currency swaps and aid already provided to Sri Lanka when about $5bn are needed in the next six months to cover basic necessities for people struggling with long queues worsening shortages and power cuts.</p>
<p>So any suggestion that India is in the same boat as Sri Lanka is patently mischievous political propaganda. India is indeed part of the rescue team.</p>
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		<title>Inflation control: What can the RBI do and what it cannot do?</title>
		<link>https://ipaiindia.org/inflation-control-what-can-the-rbi-do-and-what-it-cannot-do/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Subhash Pandey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 May 2022 12:03:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Editorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ipaiindia.org/?p=4946</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The inflation in wholesale prices measured by growth in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was 13.68%, 13.11% and 14.55% and 15.08% in January, February, March and April this year, as per latest data released on 17th May. Since April last year, WPI has been above 10% every month. This is not the first year when the country [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The inflation in wholesale prices measured by growth in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was 13.68%, 13.11% and 14.55% and 15.08% in January, February, March and April this year, as per latest data released on 17<sup style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">th</sup> May.</p>
<p>Since April last year, WPI has been above 10% every month.</p>
<p>This is not the first year when the country has faced double-digit inflation but sources and duration have been different.</p>
<p>Prices can rise due to multiple reasons. A drought, flood or pandemic affecting production/supply of goods can create demand-supply mismatch. An abundant supply of cheap credit can fuel demand-push inflation –too much money chasing too few goods. Emergence of monopoly producers with pricing power can push up prices. High taxation can push up prices. High cost of imported crude oil can push up prices.</p>
<p>While many of these factors were already at work, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resultant food shortage and crude oil price hike has resulted in global inflation surge. There are dominant concerns on inflation despite some other short-term gains. Inflation is indeed causing worry now.</p>
<p>As the pandemic ebbs, there has been heavy demand surge while the production and logistics that got stalled during pandemic is yet to pick up fully creating a demand supply gap. Inflation on the inputs side is being passed on by manufacturers to the output prices.</p>
<p>As the margins of the manufacturers have been under pressure due to rising input costs, transportation, and logistics, they are passing on these into their output prices leading to higher inflation in manufactured products. The higher input costs, especially of raw materials, have aggravated due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p>
<p>Who can remedy the situation and how?</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of India controls the extent of supply of money/credit in the market keeping in mind several factors like the foreign currency exchange rate and inflation.</p>
<p>To some extent, the RBI can control demand push inflation if it is caused by excessive money supply.</p>
<p>However, if the production fails, if the logistics fails or if the monopoly producers dictate prices or if the prices go up due to taxation, there is little that the RBI can do.</p>
<p>This is a short comment on the ‘inflation targeting’ by the RBI.</p>
<p>In 2016, the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 was amended and a whole new chapter was added on ‘Monetary Policy’.</p>
<p>One of the newly inserted provision in the Act (Section 45ZA) introduced a system of Inflation target. It mandated that tThe Central Government shall, in consultation with the RBI, determine the inflation target in terms of the Consumer Price Index(CP)I), once in every five years. A Monetary Policy Committee and a mandatory Monetary Policy Report was introduced.</p>
<p>The Act stipulated that if the RBI fails to meet the inflation target, it shall set out in a report to the Central Government— (a) the reasons for failure to achieve the inflation target; (b) remedial actions proposed to be taken by the Bank; and (c) an estimate of the time-period within which the inflation target shall be achieved pursuant to timely implementation of proposed remedial actions.</p>
<p>For the five years 2016-21, the government notified consumer price inflation target of 4 percent with toleration deviation in the range of 2 percent to 6 percent. The same target has been extended for next 5 years.</p>
<p>The CPI has now breached 6%. As per the law, the RBI has to ‘explain’ to the government why it is so?</p>
<p>CPI has a large weight of food and fuel prices which are out of the control of RBI. RBI cannot control either international crude prices nor petrol products’ taxation nor food supply disruption due to bad weather. Food and fuel demand is not much influenced by cost and availability of bank credit! (Does one buy more food and fuel if more low-cost bank credit is available? No)</p>
<p>WPI pertains to only goods, not services. So, the WPI basically captures the average movement of wholesale prices of goods and is used for comparing changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market prices.</p>
<p>GST collections have been growing in recent months sowing the success of government in cracking down on tax evasion. One fall out of this crackdown is that prices go up because what was being sold earlier without tax on kutcha bills is now being forced to be sold on pucca bills. So in a way tax evasion and inflation are inversely related.</p>
<p>Let us hope that increased tax collections, increased tax compliances nudges the government to lower tax rates. A beginning has been made by reduction in Central taxes on petroleum products. Rationalisation of GST rates is awaited.</p>
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